There seems to be some sort of bug where it gets stuck failing and I suspect they added some coding that is supposed to counter it. I think the coding for the artifacts is such a giant mess that if they put numbers, they would be very wrong. I still have to collate a lot of attempt numbers from my spreadsheets to work that out. It reads the "rolls" off the same list for all 5 & 6 star items lvl 10+, so maybe it uses a different number range for lower stars and lower levels. But there is a distinct threshold for each of those levels, rather than the "low" or "minimal" categories it lists. The required number for a successful attempt is something like 95 or higher (on a 1-100 scale) for a lvl 15, 90 or higher for a level 14, 85 or higher for a level 13, etc. The mechanics suggest the game is reading dice rolls off a list (only for the "Upgrade 1 Level" function, without the "instant" checked), rather than rolling a random number each time. I'm also using that trick to work out the odds. I discovered this when testing the upgrade internet disconnect trick. There's an upgrade mercy system (they didn't tell anyone) now that guarantees an upgrade at 30 attempts, but it's only per-item and they have to be continuous attempts (ie, have the "upgrade one level" going continuously on one item for 30 attempts).
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